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Fan-Demonium: Safety Blitz
 
April 9, 2008 | Last Updated: 4/9/08 12:56 PM ET | Comments (0)
By: TOMMY LAWLOR


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Brian Dawkins is entering the final year of his contract.  He will turn 35 in early October.  He's got young children at home. Could all this mean that 2008 will be Dawkins' final year in the NFL?

That is a very real possibility.

The thought of having to replace Brian Dawkins as the free safety is pretty intimidating.  He has been a terrific player for the Eagles and has had a changing effect on the way the position of safety is played in the NFL.

What makes him so unique is that he's a complete player. Dawkins has exceptional cover skills, whether shadowing a receiver in man coverage or sitting back in the deep middle of the field and trying to read the quarterback's eyes. He has great range. You see him make plays around the line of scrimmage, 40 yards downfield or along the sidelines. Dawkins is one of the best blitzing defensive backs of all time. He's racked up 18 career sacks.

Eagles fans know that Dawkins has been a great hitter and tackler despite not being the biggest guy. The first bone-crunching hit that sticks out in my mind is a shot he got on a Carolina Panthers running back in 1999. The runner was trying to score and Dawkins hit him like a ton of bricks. Giants wide receiver Ike Hilliard took a huge shot from Dawkins in October of 2002 and missed the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. There was also a big collision with tight end Alge Crumpler of the Falcons in the NFC Championship game in January of 2005. Crumpler is about 50 pounds heavier, but took the worst of the hit.

Dawkins has covered like a cornerback, hit like a linebacker and been a major playmaker throughout his career. Those guys are rare and usually go to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

What would the Eagles do to replace Dawkins in 2009 if he actually does retire? The first thought would be to move Sean Considine to free safety and see if he is more of a natural fit there. Not all Eagles fans are sold on Considine, but what the coaching staff thinks is more important. They seem to still like him and feel like he's part of the future. That could be at either safety spot and it could be as a starter or a backup. The major concern with Considine is his health. He's been hurt two of the last three seasons. That isn't good in the NFL.

Another option that has been talked about quite a bit this offseason is moving Sheldon Brown to safety. Brown has the skill set to make the move inside and thrive at that spot.  He can cover, hit, tackle and blitz. The only problem with moving him is that you weaken the depth at cornerback.

The team could try to add a top flight free agent next offseason. As we saw this year, very few high quality players actually make it into free agency. Planning on finding the free safety of the future this way would not be the smartest avenue to take.

Tommy Lawlor, goeagles99 on the Discussion Boards, is an amateur football scout and devoted Eagles fan. He's followed the team for almost 20 years. Tommy has been trained by an NFL scout in the art of scouting and player evaluation and runs www.scoutsnotebook.com.
The most logical solution is to draft a player and develop him. In theory, the rookie would sit behind Dawkins for a year and learn from him. The rookie would then take over as the starter in 2009 and play in the next 15 Pro Bowls and be the greatest thing since sliced bread.

The problem with finding this great rookie is that the safety class this year is mediocre. There are some good prospects, but none that seem like "can't miss" types. You also have to factor in the question of what the Eagles are looking for. Let's look back for hints or possible answers. The only player the Eagles have specifically picked to be the free safety of the future is J.R. Reed. They nabbed him in the fourth round of the 2004 draft.  Reed had 18 interceptions in college. He was a solid hitter/tackler. He was a good athlete and very good kickoff returner. Keep that in mind.

Miami's Kenny Phillips is the safety that seems to be most associated with the Eagles. I think people are way off with this match. I've studied several of his games. Phillips is not what the Eagles are likely to look for. He isn't a ballhawk. He has so-so hands and does not play the ball well. You could see this whether watching game tape or the drills at the Scouting Combine.  I actually have Phillips pegged as a strong safety. He's a very good player, but I'll be shocked if the Eagles strongly consider him with the 19th pick. He could go anywhere from the mid-first to the mid-second round.

Quintin Demps played both cornerback and safety at UTEP. He was a tremendous playmaker, picking off 17 passes. He ran three back for touchdowns. He ran one fumble back for a score. Demps forced a pair of fumbles, blocked a kick and was a factor in the return game. The problem is that he's not a strong hitter or tackler. Demps is adequate, but he's more of a playmaker.  He could go in the late second or still be on the board as late as the fourth round.

Reggie Smith played strong safety at Oklahoma as a sophomore. He moved to cornerback this past year. Smith is a very talented athlete. He's the most like Dawkins in terms of size, athletic ability, toughness and playmaking skills. The problem is that most teams are projecting Smith at cornerback because of his cover skills and athleticism. The Eagles could like him as a safety or a corner. He's not worth the 19th pick, but isn't likely to fall to our spot in the second round.

North Carolina State junior DaJuan Morgan is the best free safety in the class. He's got good size and speed. He is a physical hitter and tackler. Not all scouts agree, but I think Morgan has pretty good cover skills. He played over the slot receiver in certain sets and looked fine. He was a full-time starter for the first time in 2007. He was a productive backup in the past. Morgan isn't a ballhawk, but he has good hands and plays the ball well. He might be on the board at our second-round pick, No. 49 overall.

There are a couple of late-round guys who could be of interest.  Haruki Nakamura of Cincinnati might be my favorite free safety in the whole draft class. He's been on my radar since he had a great game against Penn State early in his sophomore season. He's a productive, well-rounded player. Nakamura isn't great in any way, though. The most productive prospect in the whole class is Corey Lynch of Appalachian State.  He picked off 24 passes, forced a couple of fumbles, recovered six fumbles and was a great kick blocker. You may recall him blocking a certain field goal against Michigan early in the 2007 season.  He tested very well at his Pro Day. I'm just not sure if his tackling ability is good enough to cut it in the NFL.

We have profiles written on these players and other possible safety prospects over at ScoutsNotebook.com. There are reports on more than 200 players.

I really don't have a good feel for what the Eagles are going to do. The closest match to J.R. Reed's description is Demps. Maybe he  is a key target. They could always wait until next year. The safety class of 2009 looks talented at this point. As you can tell, each of the players is good in multiple ways, but they also have questions that need to be answered.

Brian Dawkins is one special player and hopefully he'll be in an Eagles uniform for years to come. It will be very hard to replace someone of his stature. Does anyone know anything about cloning?

Fan-Demonium: Safety Blitz
   
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