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Numbers Don't Lie: McNabb Goes Deep
 
December 12, 2007 | Last Updated: 12/12/07 3:57 PM ET | Comments (8)
By: JUSTIN KUNKEL


The pass/run ratio. Red zone efficiency. Third down conversion percentage.

These are all things that have been tossed around in an attempt to explain how an Eagles offense that was so dynamic one year ago has lain stagnant for much of the 2007 season.

Some have merit – had the Eagles converted more than 19 of their 42 red zone opportunities into touchdowns this season they probably wouldn't be fighting for their playoff life in Dallas on Sunday.

Others make little sense – no matter how much carping there has been about Andy Reid's propensity to throw the ball, the Eagles are right in the middle of the NFL rankings in run/pass ratio.

Whatever it is that ails the offense, the struggles are frustrating, not least of all to Donovan McNabb.

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QB Donovan McNabb
"I haven't been a part of anything like this, even in my rookie year," McNabb said.

The chic new theory to explain why the offense has sputtered suggests that it is McNabb's refusal to throw the ball deep that has grounded the passing game. On Sunday, McNabb completed an efficient 20 of 30 passes. On the season, he has completed 60.4 percent of his passes, which is very close to his 58.5 career completion percentage.

Unfortunately, he has only 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. The first number is undoubtedly lower than McNabb would hope, but now he is even taking heat because the second is so low.

When things were going well, McNabb was praised for taking care of the ball. Now that the Eagles are 5-8, he is criticized for not taking more chances.

"There are chances to take shots, but also you have to be smart with the ball," McNabb said. "In this situation, yes we're 5-8, but this isn't the time to just start throwing the ball up and seeing who is able to make plays."

The numbers really don't suggest that McNabb has been overly-conservative this season. In fact, they suggest that he really hasn't thrown downfield all that much less than he has throughout the rest of his career.

In the 11 games in which he has played this season, McNabb has attempted 38 throws that traveled 20 yards or more in the air. That means that on the average Sunday, he throws 3.5 deep balls.

Since 2000, McNabb averages 4.2 throws of over 20 yards per game – a difference of less than one full attempt.

In fact, following the 2000 season, McNabb finished as the runner up to Marshall Faulk in the league MVP voting, and that season he had attempted only 3.9 passes of 20 yards or more per game. In 2001, he attempted only 3.5.

On Wednesday, McNabb fielded questions about how much the Eagles offense has changed in the last eight years, but he said he really doesn't see too many differences.

"We're adding different wrinkles into it. Every week, you add something different into it to attack the given defense that you're playing," McNabb said. "Defenses have been trying to eliminate us from getting the big play, which we had a lot of success with last year and in previous years. That leads us to checking down to the back, throwing it to the tight end, working intermediate routes in the passing game."

While that may be true, again, the numbers don't suggest that the Eagles check down all that much more than they used to. Yes, last year's offense featured many more explosive plays, and while the 7.0 yards per attempt McNabb averages this year is not nearly as impressive 8.4 yards per attempt he had last season, it is still the third highest number of his career.

Before 2004, McNabb never averaged more than 6.7 yards per attempt.

After the bombs-away offense of last season, many teams are playing soft zones against the Eagles, and even though statistically McNabb is only marginally more conservative than he has been in the past, he said he will always take what the defense gives him.

"I believe that if you check it down, you give your guys an opportunity to make plays for you," McNabb said. "(Brian) Westbrook and our running backs and our tight ends can make a guy miss and pick up 15 yards, instead of just trying to throw it up there and see who comes up to get it."

Numbers Don't Lie: McNabb Goes Deep
   
Smedley
12/13/07
11:36 am ET
Actually, numbers do lie. Or more correctly, they say what we want them to say. If you want to really be accurate with this one, and prove your point, you have to be prepare to break it down by more than just the average number for the season. When are the long passes coming? Are more of them in late in the games this year when the team's trailing? How many of the long passes are being completed versus previous years, and how many are being thrown away over the receiver's head? There's a lot you can do with numbers, but never toss out one or two and expect them to be taken as conlusive evidence of facts. :)
Eagle-1
12/13/07
11:26 am ET
Here we go...This isn't about McNabb being the greatest QB in Philly history, he doesn't go deep every other pass, taking heat because his INTs are soo low (which sounds crazy), or stats! It's about why he holds the ball too long when receivers DO pop open, then he takes the easy out by throwing to Westbrook! Keep your stats, etc during games this is what we see an HESITANT QB! We both know every Sunday we see QBs throwing and completing passes in tighter coverage...We're not looking for PERSONAL STATS, we're looking for team WINS!
stiffmuffin25@...
12/13/07
10:49 am ET
this isnt about mcnabb and its not about the pass/run ratio either. the problem is that every other succesful football team nfl/college/high school (except for the freak of nature pats) uses the run to set up the pass. we dont do that here. for whatever reason we still insist on passing short on firrst down and running on second down which almost always leaves a third and long (which explains the poor third down percentage)while i agree that this offense is missing a big time reciever what makes you think we would utilize him properly anyway. what i dont understand is why we wont line up on first down and hand the ball to one of the best offensive weapons in football in westbrook. it kills me every week. when we have brady moss stallworth welker and the play calling from bellichek then we can pass the ball on first down. until then lets work our personell the right way.
stocton2malone@...
12/13/07
9:01 am ET
Everyone is continuing to ignore the fact that except the year we had TO McNabb hasn't had anyone to throw to his whole career, I mean it's flat out amazing we even made it to the Playoffs all those years with him having to throw the ball to Stinkston and Trash. We need a Receiver I mean McNabb's numbers speak for themselves the year he had T.O. see what happens when we get a receiver. How long will Reid Ignore the Problem???
phillygrl85@...
12/13/07
8:31 am ET
T.O. was right.
digdague07
12/12/07
9:21 pm ET
Your right, numbers don't lie. Look at his percentage completion rate, but then at how many passes he's had for 20+ yds! I think my daughter could hit Westbrook out of the backfield. I think a better stat would be his accuracy rate at 15+ yds. Also, his average yards per pass is where it is at due to Westbrook's exceptional running after receiving the throw. Just watch the second Redskins game and you'll see..
stocton2malone@...
12/12/07
8:42 pm ET
She is out of her mind, first of all what Eagles QB hasn't choked when it all counted since 1960?? The Numbers don't lie, he's the best QB Philly has ever had. We have had the same problem we've always had since Westbrook got here and that is with the exception of the year we had TO B-West has been the best Receiver we've had his whole career. WE NEED A SOLID #1 RECEIVER. Brown and Curtis are very good #2's but they need someone to attract the Defense away from them
phillygrl85@...
12/12/07
7:03 pm ET
You couldn't be any further up Donovan's *ss if you were Andy Reid! His stats may say he is the best QB we have ever had, but what the stats don't say...he CHOKES WHEN IT COUNTS!!



 

 
 
 
 
 
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